FX Fundamentals View

Headlines No deal to bailout or save Greece over the weekend. Euro sold from the very open European credit and debt markets show easing concerns over Greek disaster Higher nonfarm payrolls and lower unemployment confirm growing US economy Summary Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. It’s as if the market itself has agreed that Greece is certainly heading for a default. European measures of market health have ceased tracking the negative headlines from Athens. Spanish bonds yields are

Outlook: Payrolls has come and gone but what remains is that the numbers seemed to confirm the cock-eyed optimism manifest in equity markets of late, not to mention VIX at or near lows. To a certain extent, it doesn’t matter whether the numbers are correct as long as some folks think they are. One of the important parties with a dog in this fight is Mr. Bernanke, who has to address the Senate tomorrow and defend QE3 in the face of what seems to be “no need.” Well, he can always fall back on

Adam Rosen , CEO at 4xLounge Curr€ncie$ Watch: Daily short videos presented by forex experts who analyze the market at the opening of the trading sessions.

Forex traders, join the daily All Things Forex broadcast- a live one hour program covering Forex and major economic events, trend developments,research, analysis, ideas, education, live traders forum, interviews with some of the most respected names in the trading world, and much more.. In the broadcast today: AUD Outlook ahead of the RBA Decision. Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate announcement, we focus on the AUD and explore the outlook for the higher-yielding currency

Pressure mounts on Greek party leaders which are supposed to reach an agreement on further austerity measures required by the Troika in exchange for releasing the second bailout package. Without being able to pay for the 14.5 billion euro bond redemption on March 20 the country faces a disorderly default. The leaders of the parties supporting PM Lucas Papademos's coalition government held a five hour meeting on Sunday during which they discussed the recapitalization of domestic banks and

Weekly Highlights: Third steepest rise in Poland’s PMI history CNB left the rates unchanged and worsened its prognosis NBP meeting in focus as inflation expectations drift upwards Chart of the Week:

Another round of talks, another deadline came and went… let’s review what’s on the table. Troika and other lenders want Greece to have approval of all unity government parties for budgetary reform, and to reach a deal with creditors currently being asked to take a 70% haircut on outstanding debt. These are the terms to secure a €130B bailout (of €145B likely needed) in order to avoid a “disorderly default”, which could happen as soon as March. Glad to have the spotlight on Greece, Portugal has

The euro slipped against majors before deadline set by international lenders for Greek political party leaders to respond to the austerity proposal needed to grant Greece a second bailout worth 130 billion euros. Greece remains under the spot on concerns political leaders may not reach consensus regarding further spending cuts needed to receive the aid, thus tumbling into default as early as March as the government has to repay 14.5 billion euros of debt maturing. Greek Prime Minister Lucas

Highlights: Earnings growth over the past year has been slowing for the S&P 500 index due to a slowdown in the rate of expansion in profit margins. These margins are now flattening out, a definite headwind for profit growth in 2012. Several sectors have margins that are reaching extreme points. These include Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology. With margins peaking there will be limited PE expansion in 2012. We expect EPS for the S&P 500 index to increase by

The USD is in a lose-lose situation courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s ultra easy stance. Positive economic data releases have been met with USD selling pressure as the data helps to fuel a rally in risk appetite. Although the USD benefited from the better than expected US January jobs report gains will prove fleeting as it is does not change expectations of more Fed quantitative easing (note the drop in the participation rate). Following the jobs report, there is little on the data front over

Highlights Nonfarm payroll growth beat consensus expectations in January, jumping 243K following upward revisions to both November (from 100K to 157K) and December (from 200K to 203K). Gains were led primarily by a 257K rise in private sector hiring, with job growth focused in professional and business services, manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality. As usual, government employment declined but to a lesser extent compared to the previous three months. Since the beginning of 2011, 276K

Headlines: CEE currencies extend rally on US payrolls Czech industry posts solid growth, NBP in focus CEE currencies extended rally on positive US payrolls figures and subsequent gains of global equity markets. EUR/CZK moved back below crucial 25.00/25.015 level and EUR/PLN stays below 4.2 and 200-day moving average. For the week ahead the crucial question is whether this breakthrough is sustainable or the rally starts to loose the steam. A lot of should depend on the outcome of Greek talks.

Headlines The median Bloomberg forecast for payrolls is a gain of 140,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 8.5% Canada’s unemployment rose to a high 7.6% in January Euro leaders stalling over a plan to appease Greek creditors, saying it should be wrapped in the coming days Fed’s soft QE measures will probably hold up markets for time being Summary Positions are mainly being squared up before the nonfarm payrolls release at 08:30 New York time but the majors have not breached their respective

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The decline in euro-area December retail sales confirms our view that private consumption is likely to have fallen in the fourth quarter" - James Ashley, senior European economist at RBC Capital Markets Euro zone retail sales declined unexpectedly in December, said the European Union's statistics office Eurostat on Friday. Retail sales fell 0.4 per cent from November after declining by the same amount in October. USD "The [payroll] report was much better than expected

Meetings between Greek politicians continued over the weekend but no signs of an agreement have been forthcoming. The IMF/EU/ECB troika has asked Greece to come up with further austerity measures by 10am GMT this morning so as to receive the new EUR130bn bailout package that should see the Greeks not default on March 20th. Or at least, not default in a disorderly fashion. The agreement on how much of a haircut the private sector will receive has been pushed away, it seems, as the ECB is not

On Friday, sentiment on the European markets remained constructive. However, the US payrolls report was the key factor for trading on almost all markets. The report was much stronger than expected. This time the dollar rather than the euro profited from the good news from the US. The EUR/USD cross rate traded in the mid 1.31 area at open of the European markets. The euro was again well bid during the morning session in Europe. The EU services PMI was confirmed above the 50 level, raising hope

We start the week with some interesting events like Ivey PMI in Canada and Halifax HPI in the UK as the main highlight on today’s outlook. Let’s see what awaits us today. In Canada, Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), Monthly Survey to rate the business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories reduce to 58.6 from 63.5 on the last month and indicates industry expansion. In Europe, Sentix Investor Confidence, Monthly Survey to rate

Market Brief Friday’s US employment data was extremely encouraging, with the headline non-farm payrolls coming in much stronger than expected at 243k (compared to consensus estimates looking for 140k), and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 8.3% from 8.5% prior. The release led to a short-term uptick in risk sentiment characterized by a decent rally in USDJPY above 76.70 levels, but that good news has now been overshadowed by renewed Greece concerns at the start of this week.

Layalee Ramahi , Strategic Manager at ecPulse.com. Curr€ncie$ Watch: Daily short videos presented by forex experts who analyze the market at the opening of the trading sessions.